It is easy to lose sight of the big picture when called upon to act quickly in response to the human tragedy caused by COVID-19. Even as the crisis unfolds before our eyes, governments, regional and international organizations, and civil society have leapt into action to ameliorate immediate suffering and prevent the worst effects – and, slowly, to prepare to deal with the long-term consequences.
When? Where? Who?
Pandemics create both demand and supply shocks in all economic sectors, to varying degrees and at different rates. Although the agricultural sector tends to be more resilient than other sectors, to the extent that the pandemic disrupts regional and international trade, the food system in developing countries can still take a significant hit. And for countries that rely on food imports, a food systems crisis may hit earlier than the effects of the pandemic itself.
In the short run, demand can decrease significantly due to loss of income and overall economic slowdown. This is particularly critical for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the midstream and downstream parts of the agrifood sector (i.e. processing, transportation and distribution), as well as for SMEs outside the agrifood sector. Most households in these sectors, particularly those of informal day labourers, have little or no safety net to weather the storm – hence, a loss of income has implications for their food security and nutrition.
The short-term effects on the supply side are likely to be smaller for the food sector, as upstream agricultural production in developing countries relies mainly on family labour, which is relatively unaffected by measures such as lockdowns. However, if market linkages are broken due to pandemic response measures, the supply of food could decrease in the mid- and upstream. If connectivity is not restored in the medium- to long term, production and supply could decrease over time as well.
The effects of the pandemic are also likely to be different along the rural-urban continuum. More urbanized areas may be harder hit than remote rural areas if connectivity remains broken down, as most food is produced in rural and semi-rural areas.
Lastly, the effects of the pandemic are certain to affect some segments of IFAD target groups more severely than others. Overall, women, youth and persons with disabilities are likely to feel the effects much more strongly, given that these groups are already disadvantaged in accessing economic and financial resources.
Given all of these various links and interrelated effects, it is essential that all interventions must be holistic in design.
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